I was curious about what happens to repositories after they are posted to Hacker News. I pulled Show HN data from BigQuery and combined it with GitHub API calls. Data covers 2021-2025 (with GitHub API calls through mid-January 2026).
Repositories are dying faster
The first chart shows when repositories die after their HN submission. 2025 data is brutal: more repos either died before posting or die within 6 months after. In 2021, 13.4% had no commits since HN. By 2025, that’s 24.2%. The 6-month death rate jumped from 8.5% to 17.3%. The middle is disappearing. Projects either stay maintained or die quickly.
HN points ≠ GitHub stars
The scatter plot reveals an asymmetry: getting HN points guarantees some minimum GitHub stars, but the reverse isn’t true. Look at that dense vertical wall on the left: tons of projects with 0-100 HN points but thousands of stars. Silent projects can hit 10k+ stars without ever touching the HN hype cycle. The empty bottom-right corner proves it: viral visibility raises the floor, but it’s completely unnecessary for reaching the ceiling of open-source success.
71% post once
Most people (9,426 users) post exactly once. 16% post twice. Only 6% post 4+ times. The top user has 66 posts.
What does this mean?
Side projects die. That’s fine. But the 2025 trend of faster death rates is interesting. Maybe people are launching earlier, burning out quicker, or just moving on faster. If you’re posting: 40%+ of 2025 repos had their last commit within 6 months. Post when you’re ready to maintain it, not just when you want the attention.